Patriots -3 against the Packers, and the market keeps pushing.

The Patriots host the Packers Sunday as -3 favorites, with the market giving New England a 61% chance to win after the margin is removed. That's a thin number for a 5-3 team that's perfect at home, and it's why this game sits on the board without a published pick. Both teams are 5-3 and both have won their last game, so the price is doing the talking.

New England's case is simple: 3-0 at home, 23.0 points per game, and a defense allowing 20.3. The moneyline record is 5-2, and the market has already moved the spread from -1.5 to -3 and the moneyline from -153 to -170. That's sharp money stepping in on the home side. The concern is the injury report: Mack Hollins, TreVeyon Henderson, A.J. Brown, and Greg Van Roten are out or doubtful, with Hunter Henry, Brenden Schooler, and Morgan Moses questionable.

Green Bay's argument is the cover rate. The Packers are 4-2-1 against the spread (67%) and 4-3 on the moneyline, and they've matched New England's L-W-L-W-W-W-L-W-W-L last ten exactly. They allow 20.5 points per game, nearly identical to the Patriots. But they're 2-2 on the road, and the injury list is longer: Micah Parsons, Zaire Franklin, Sean Rhyan, and Chris Brooks are out or doubtful, with Keisean Nixon and MarShawn Lloyd questionable.

The total has moved from 46.5 to 44.5, toward the under, and Green Bay's 2-5-0 over/under record supports that side. Best prices: New England -168 on the moneyline at BetOnline.ag, Green Bay +150 at BetAnything. On the spread, New England -3 (-115) at BetOnline.ag, Green Bay +3 (+100) at BetAnything. On the total, over -110 and under -110, both at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick here. No side reaches 70% in the model. Whatever your read is, the best number is on the board.