Hawks -4 at Pelicans, and the market keeps moving toward Atlanta.

Atlanta comes into New Orleans as a -4 favorite with a -180 moneyline, and the market gives the Hawks a 62% chance with the margin removed. The Pelicans sit at 38% on their home floor. That's the price. The question is whether the number has moved past the truth.

Atlanta's case is the road resume and the head-to-head. The Hawks are 3-3 overall and 2-1 away, scoring 119.2 per game while allowing 114.5. They've beaten New Orleans twice in the last two meetings, including a 117-100 win on Jan. 7. The Hawks also have a 3-1 over record, and the total has climbed from 237.5 to 240.5. Atlanta's 46.5% field goal rate isn't the story; the story is a defense allowing nearly seven fewer points per game than New Orleans.

New Orleans is 1-4 but 1-2 at home and riding a one-game win streak. The Pelicans score 119.4 per game, slightly more than Atlanta, but they allow 121.6, the worst mark in this matchup. They're 2-2 against the spread and 2-2 on totals. Yves Missi and Jordan Poole are out or doubtful, which thins the frontcourt and backcourt. The case for the home side is simple: the Pelicans have the better raw scoring average and the Hawks are only 2-2 ATS, so this line may have overcorrected.

The market has moved hard. The spread opened at +2.5 and is now +4, and the Pelicans moneyline drifted from +111 to +155. That's sharp money on Atlanta. Best prices: Pelicans +155 at BetAnything, Hawks -175 at BetOnline.ag. Spread: Pelicans +4 (-105) at Bovada, Hawks -4 (-110) at BetAnything. Total 240.5: Over -105 at BetOnline.ag, Under -110 at BetAnything.

GODDS has no pick on this game. No side reaches 70% in the model. If you have a read, the best number is waiting for it.