Houston Rockets +5.5 at Denver Nuggets: God of Odds Pick

The God of Odds likes the Houston Rockets +5.5 at -106, and LowVig.ag is the place to hammer it. This line is giving us too many points against a Denver team that's been a disaster for bettors lately. The Nuggets are on a 2-game loss streak and have lost five of their last ten. Their moneyline record is 0-5, and they're covering spreads at just a 20% clip. That's not a team you lay points with, especially against a Houston squad that's shown it can win.

Look at the Rockets' recent form. They're 4-2 on the moneyline and 4-2 against the spread, a 67% cover rate. They've won six of their last ten games, including a 115-101 victory over these same Nuggets back in December. Yes, Houston has injuries with Jae'Sean Tate, Steven Adams, and Fred VanVleet out, but Denver is missing Peyton Watson too. The market isn't properly adjusting for how bad Denver has been.

The spread hasn't moved significantly, sitting at -5.5 across most books. That tells us sharp money isn't rushing to back the Nuggets at home. When a team is 1-4 ATS and facing a squad that's 4-2 ATS, you take the points. Houston has proven they can beat Denver, and they're getting more than a possession's worth of cushion here.

For the best price, head to LowVig.ag at -106. That's better than the -110 you'll find at BetOnline, Bovada, and most other books. Pinnacle is close at -105, but LowVig gives you the extra value on the Rockets side. This is a strong play because the data doesn't lie. Denver's recent performance is awful, and Houston's is solid. Take the points with confidence.